Monday Empire Report

soaofny • August 30, 2021

The Empire Report - Monday, August 30, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) MARTY MONKHOUSER A is rock solid at this level and goes back to a barn that he's

raced very well for in the past - looks to make it two in a row, and the inside draw should definitely help his

cause. (8) BRACKLEY BEACH has a pair of solid 2nds since being claimed by his current connections

-it's never easy to win from out here, but there's a chance that Brennan can improve position at the start

without using him too hard - his chances go up considerably if that happens. (4) BLUEBIRD RECON is

another very solid performer in this class, but he's also a bit camera shy - better one to use underneath, than

on top. (1) IN SPADES was claimed by a sharp outfit and draws best for his first start - on the flip side, he

has only ONE win this season, and that was 3 weeks ago, by a nose, in the bottom condition - insist on a

good price if using him on top. (7) MY MIND IS MADEUP was a solid rallying 4th off the claim but he's

stuck outside, and may have too far to come to be a serious threat this week. (2) UNICO LEGEND N

shocked with that form reversing victory 2 back but was unable to replicate that effort in his last - not

impossible, but still sticking with others. (5) TALK SHOW exits a strong barn and may not fare as well for

his new connections - definitely not a fan at that 7/2 ML price. (6) COOL BLUES MAN moves up in class

after being claimed by a barn still looking for their first local win of the season - prefer others.


RACE 2 - (4) HUNDIE N wasn't bad from a no-chance spot dropping from 50s to 40s and now drops once

more to 30s - figures to be the best price among the logical contenders, and that makes him worth a good

look in here. (1) CHRISTEN ME N was claimed for the 3rd time in 4 starts last week, showing that the

13YO double-millionaire still is a force to reckon with - debuts tonight for one of the fastest rising stars in

the game, and will be a serious threat to take this from the pole. (3) LATE MAIL has looked good in all 3

starts since arriving from Delaware, and traded victories with #1 the last 2 weeks - very legit chance to take

his 2nd in a row. (5) DREAMFAIR CHARRO was 2nd in NW7500 last week after winning one level down

the start before - moves back up to 30s tonight, and may find himself rallying for only a smaller piece of

this. (7) EGOMANIA has been pretty sharp, and moves to a high % barn for tonight - he'll also be coming

from well back, and that figures to limit him to a smaller share. (2) TIGERS WAY is just 1 for 26 at YR but

he's talented enough for a chance at a piece, with an easy, up close trip. (8) KEPT UNDER WRAPS A

wasn't bad last week and now goes from Cory to Jordan - he also lands Post 8, and that will likely leave

him waiting for a better spot in order to strut his stuff. (6) PROVEN DESIRE seems a bit overmatched.


RACE 3 - (7) FLYING FINN N rallied stoutly after swinging 4 wide last week upon dropping down to this

level - he's held his own with much better, and will be a big threat tonight with any decent trip, even from

Post 7 - good value play. (2) GHOST DANCE was scratched sick last start for the 2nd time in 6 weeks - on

the flip side, he raced super off the last scratch, just missing in a fast mile - mixed feelings, but he's

definitely sharp enough for a chance to beat these IF 100% tonight. (5) ODDS ON DELRAY was bet down

to 4/5 arriving from the midwest, looked like a winner into the stretch but came up a nose shy on the wire

to a sharp rival - legitimate threat tonight. (1) EHRMANTROUT will attract plenty of tote action with

another class drop and the rail, but his current form is less than stellar, and he may be a bit vulnerable right

now. (6) DEEDENUTO A would likely be close to 100-1 tonight if not for the barn change....but since

we've seen the Super Siblings take horses with NO current form OR back class and instantly turn them into

winners (Tenthousand Angels and All Hands On Deck quickly come to mind), it's POSSIBLE that they can

get this guy to improve the 10-15 lengths he'd need to be a threat here. (3) DARLINGS DRAGON is

feeling pretty good right now, but his 2 race win streak is definitely in jeopardy vs. this much tougher

bunch - chance for a minor share. (4) AUDI HARE N is pretty sharp right now, but may be pressing his

luck up at this level - probably needs cheaper to be a serious player. (8) STICK WITH CRAMER draws

Post 8 off 2 months for a new barn - will just watch for tonight.


RACE 4 - (6) DESIRES CAPTAIN shipped in from Ohio as a bottom class afterthought - this one did take

the Dynamic Duo a couple of starts to figure out, but then went on to beat the 12.5s, 20s, 30s, and then 40s,

earning $47K in those 4 wins ($15K MORE than he earned in all of 2020/21 combined, prior to joining his

new barn) - goes for 5 in a row tonight, and he'll be favored to do so....even from Post 6. (4) DAVIDS

COMING HOME has taken 3 in a row (15s, 20s, and 25s) and now takes on the 40s - he's been pacing

powerful final halves, so if the pace gets testy up front he may have a chance to beat these too! (5) REAL

LUCKY N had been sharp for weeks before last week's "meh" performance - hard to know if he'll bounce

right back with a big one, or if it was a sign that he's about to tail off...we'll find out tonight.(2) SPORTSKE

EPER has been terrific (other than that dud 3 back) but he comes into this off a bad date, thanks to a sick

scratch and last Monday's cancellation - legit player if 100%, but he may be a bit short off a month. (2)

TREASURE MACH really could use some class relief but the rail draw at least puts him in play from a

minor award. (3) GRIFFON HANOVER landed in NW30000 last week thanks to a recent form spree -

found those too tough, but may be able to at least grab a small share dropping in against these. (7) GINGER

TREE PETE is another that has used a recent form spree to go from the 12.5s up to the 40s - couldn't keep

it going on the lead last time and while he may prefer racing from behind, he does seem compromised by

tonight's draw. (8) YANKEE OSBORNE raced much better for his new barn last time, but gets stuck all the

way outside tonight and that will severely limit his options.


RACE 5 - (3) TONY TOO TALL is so good right now he was even able to give his previously winless

barn (0 for 36) their first victory of the meet last week - the "Super Siblings" take over off the successful

claim, and we'll stick with him. (5) CHANGE STRIDE N has been on an extended form spree for most of

the year, but has struggled to actually get his picture taken here (1 for 18, but 11X 2nd or 3rd) - maybe can

get it done it tonight, but seems more likely that he'll come up a little short again. (6) SNOWBALLS

ROMEO is listed at 12-1 ML but his out of town lines suggest he'll race better than that, especially joining

a new barn - not a lot of wins the last 2 years, though, and probably one to be used underneath only. (1)

PICARD A looks pretty good on paper, but he definitely hasn't been at his absolute best in his last few

starts - exits a very hot barn, and we'll see how he does tonight in his new surroundings. (2) RECORD

YEAR has 7 wins this year, but remains somewhat suspect at this level - yet to prove that he can beat THIS

class. (4) AMERICAN BOY N perked up and scored the win off the barn change last week but this is a

much tougher spot - not sure he can replicate that mile against these. (8) REVELRY has been just "ok", and

lands the worst post for his new connections - not sure he can even get close enough to threaten. (7)

GIVENUPDREAMING has just one win this year and that was by a head, vs. 25s. - seems up against it vs.

40s, from Post 7.


RACE 6 - (4) UPTOWN FUNK gave way badly 2 back after being used too hard early for the lead but last

week was just what he needed after that, sitting back and finishing with crisp pace (but from an impossible

spot) - very dangerous player if the trip goes his way. (6) ROBBIE BURNS N won his first two starts (in

40s) arriving from Pocono - his new barn bumped him up to 50s off the claim and he was a solid 3rd - legit

player once again tonight. (1) KEYSTONE PHOENIX landed on a dream trip last week and was able to

score the victory - may happen again tonight, but he figures to be overbet, and he's just not a particularly

reliable horse - no real value on top. (7) BETTOR NOTBITTER A shipped in sharp and was able to beat

the 40s last week with a very determined stretch kick - he's climbed from 12.5s to 50s on his latest form

spree, but may be in too tough here to take another...wouldn't be a shock, though. (7) BLACK CHEVRON

N is awfully good right now, but also is stuck with Post off a sick scratch - can't blame anybody willing to

use him if the price is juicy enough. (3) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE is hard to gauge, moving from the NW8

class to face these tough older foes - suppose we'll find out tonight how well he fits with these. (2) GLENG

ARRY KNIGHT N just hasn't impressed enough at YR to merit consideration as a serious threat. (8) IAM

MRBRIGHTSIDE N failed to threaten from Post 8 last week vs. the 40s...even tougher assignment tonight.


RACE 7 - (8) NONE BETTOR A has been razor sharp, but last week he actually beat the sensational

DRAGON SAID fair and square when the two of them hooked up from before 3/4s - willing to stick with

him from Post 8, hoping his new pilot will find him a trip he can work with. (7) SHOOBEE DOO A landed

on a terrible trip from Post 8 vs. the top one last week, but had been razor sharp prior to that - gets a slight

post edge tonight, and may be able to parlay that into a winning trip (liked his a chances a bit more when he

had Post 6 on last week's canceled card, but ROCKAPELO was given that spot tonight). (3) PYRO worked

hard to stay close last week and finished gamely for 3rd, a length behind the top choice - has a big post

edge tonight, and it would be no surprise to see him right there on the wire. (4) LYONS KING was an ok

4th in his first venture into the Open 2 back, and gets a pass for his last (just a brutal trip) - if he blasts out

of there and works out a live trip, maybe he'd have a chance at the upset? (6) ROCKAPELO was forced to

draw for 6-8 in last week's canceled card (landed Post 7) but does get assigned Post 6 tonight - when in the

mood, he's more than capable of beating these....maybe the tote board will offer up some clues? (2)

TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER steps up off a sharp "pocket rocket" victory - hasn't been up at this level in

some time, and we'll see if he can still step with these. (5) BUDDY HILL failed badly trying it first over in

his first foray into the Open but he bounced back with a nice 3rd off the easy trip in last - continues to

overachieve, and maybe can grab another small piece tonight (but we did like him better when he had the

rail last Monday). (1) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH got really good for a while, but seems to have leveled off.


RACE 8 - Good race: (5) WEONA SIZZLER A has really hit stride since the 7/19 claim, delivering a trio

of sharp efforts culminating in last week's very impressive victory - faces a few solid rivals tonight, but

we'll give him the narrow edge off last week's effort. (3) JUST PLAIN LOCO has been scary sharp despite

rising up the class ladder, with some terrible spots along the way - was right on the wire in a "winners over"

field start, and gets a good draw for tonight - legit threat. (1) SOHO LEVIATHAN A has been sharp for

seemingly forever, and hard to leave out of the exotics - just 2 WINS on the year, though, so probably better

used underneath. (8) FUNATTHEBEACH N is from the same connections as DESIRES

CAPTAIN (Race 4), and they've reaped the rewards of sending horses to the "Dynamic Duo" with this guy

as well (picked up $38,500 over a 4 start period) - wasn't at his absolute best in last, but he certainly wasn't

"bad" - remains a very dangerous player, even from Post 8. (4) SUMTHINBOUTIM is sharp right now, but

will be class tested tonight against these - not really sure how he'll handle it. (2) BARBADOS wasn't as

sharp last week for his new connections - not writing him off by any means, but using him only underneath,

for now. (6) IM SOME GRADUATE really hasn't been on his best game in 2021 and to make matters

worse, he had the rail when the card was canceled last Monday - figures to struggle with the move to Post

6. (7) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY steps up sharp, but may struggle to get involved from out here.


RACE 9 - (1) OSTRO HANOVER had Post 8 last Monday but that card was scrapped and now he has the

pole - hasn't been having the best season so far, but it's not like he's been "bad" - good chance he can take

advantage of the huge shift in post positions. (3) GENIUS MAN improved dramatically last week with a

major wake up call effort - if he can build off that mile, he can be a serious player tonight. (2) SO MANY

ROADS will hope to sit close and shake free for the drive home - if things go his way, he CAN be a late

threat. (5) OUR MAX PHACTOR N was scratched for "conflict of interest" with just a couple of minutes

to post last week (his trainer was part owner of another horse in the race!), but that issue was pointed out in

the Empire Report the night before! --certainly fits well with these, and belongs on your tickets. (6) THE

WALL raced much better last week than his line might suggest - draws Post 6 after having the rail for the

canceled card, and that reduces his chances considerably - on the flip side, his price will be a lot better if

you still have faith in him. (4) SKIP TO MY LOU was horrible for his new barn last week but likely bled,

as he returns on Lasix tonight - consider including him if he goes off at a decent price. (8) BUY IN has

obviously been very sharp at Chester, but he lands Post 8 for his Hilltop debut and may be a little on the

cheaper side - reasonable to consider if the price is huge. (7) SILAS SEELSTER really needs a better post

to be a threat against this type.


RACE 10 - (5) DECISION DAY has held his (very) sharp form while climbing the class ladder - he'll be a

pretty good price in this field and as long as he gets along well with his new pilot, he'll have a chance to

spring an upset. (6) STARS ALIGN A got class relief upon arrival from NJ last week and was able to

prevail as the 1/5 choice - this spot is definitely tougher, but he's still a serious threat to handle these as well

(for the hottest barn on the planet). (3) LUCIANO N was on a long form spree before getting slowed by

bad posts in his last two - no reason Holland can't be more aggressive tonight, and he becomes a player if

the trip goes his way - definitely deserves a look at that 12-1 ML price. (2) AINTNOBETTOR A may

prefer to be in a little softer but he draws well for a very live barn, and should probably be included in your

exotics. (1) FUNKNWAFFLES draws his 5th rail in 6 weeks but the results have been widely varied - on

his best effort he can be in the hunt...but his performances have varied considerably from week to week! (4)

ROCK THE DEVIL goes for a new barn tonight, and does look a bit cheaper than some of these - chance

for a minor share. (7) SOHO LENNON A returns after taking three months off - draws poorly, and we'll

just observe, for now (and perhaps consider when he drops in class next week). (8) TOM ME GUN N is

sharp, but not sharp enough to consider from Post 8 up at this higher level.


RACE 11 - (1) AMERICAN HISTORY's best effort would be too much for these to handle, especially

from this spot - wouldn't be unloading on him at a very short price, but he's clearly the one to beat. (6)

RAUKAPUKA RULER N takes what would normally be a winning drop, but has the misfortune of

catching #1 tonight (and spotting him a major post edge, too) - at least he'll be a decent price if you want to

hop on board. (5) CAVIART LUCA prefers easier spots but the veteran is having a strong 2021 campaign

(7 wins, $106K already), and shouldn't be dismissed too quickly. (4) SUGARTOWN is razor sharp, but

steps up in class and exits a very sharp barn - we'll see if he can keep his good form going against these. (7)

KEEP ON ROCKING A feels like he's been sharp for an eternity - lands in a very tough spot, however, and

will probably be limited to a smaller piece tonight. (2) GUMPTION would definitely prefer to be in easier -

does draw well, so maybe he can rally late for a minor share? (8) ITALIAN DELIGHT N can hold his own

at this level but will be at a major disadvantage starting from Post 8 - would look terrific next week with a

better post, and maybe a class drop. (3) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP is racing well, but may find things a

little too tough up at this level.



RACE 12 - (3) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE hadn't been at his best since returning from the layoff but he was

then parked every step in his last and still lasted for a 5th place check (while only beaten by 5 lengths) - has

to be given the edge tonight. (2) GRAY DRAGON is a talented 4YO that has raced well in 3 local tries

-returns from Nfd. off a fine 2nd in a fast stakes race, and looms the main danger. (5) KERFORD ROAD A

was a close 4th in his last start here at this level, and is eligible to grab a decent piece tonight, as well. (6)

BETTOR MEMORIES is a major "in-and-outer", and very tough to predict from week to week - capable of

making some noise here IF in the mood....but that's a big if! (4) KEY ADVISOR upset a NW15000 field at

24-1 three back, then raced evenly (while no factor) in his last 2 at this level - maybe can grab a minor

share with an easy enough trip? (8) SHADOW CAT appreciated the class relief in his last pair, picking up a

win and a 2nd - not sure he'll be able to be as effective tonight, moving up in class while also landing Post

8. (7) PERFECTLY CLOSE is sharp for sure, but may struggle to get into the mix from all the way out

here. (1) ANTHEM N draws the pole but just seems a bit below many of these rivals.


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