The Empire Report – Thursday, April 4, 2024 – Race Analysis
It’s likely that the track will have been deluged by rain for much of the past 3 days heading into tonight’s card –
be careful and look for any trends early on
RACE 1 – (4) FLIP THE SWITCH has now taken 4 in a row but what’s most impressive is that his LAST win was
probably the most impressive of them all – willing to stay on board as he looks to “drive for five”! (2) WILLY WAL
TON was very good last start, even if helped by a very easy trip – his barn won a pair on Tues. night., and this guy
may be able to add some value to the ticket tonight. (1) LIGHTFOOTEDLEGEND gets a pass for his last as he was
up in class AND stuck in a horrible shuffle – drops, lands inside, and his form has been strong so far in ‘24. (3) ALL
CHAMPY turned in back to back outstanding seasons before going on the shelf after a powerful win on 8/24 – his
qualifier suggests that he could be ready despite the time off, but it would be hard to take too short a price right now.
(8) STEUBEN HANOVER can be excused for his last as he does throw his share of duds– he faces a long haul from
Post 8, but a big enough price would make him worth considering on top. (6) INN AT RODANTHE came up 2ndbest to the top choice last week but his chances tonight may be compromised by the draw – prefer others a bit more.
(7) IN MY DREAMS had to requalify after breaks in 3 of his last 4 starts – guessing he’ll be handled very carefully
tonight. (5) LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO seems to be heading in the wrong direction at the moment.
RACE 2 – (2) PAPPARDELLE didn’t even pretend to be interested in his first start back of ’24 – he was handled
very conservatively again last week, but this time did charge home full of trot to be 2nd – not a bad week to hop on
board, hoping we’ll see his best. (4) NOWS THE MOMENT just wasn’t at his best last start and weakened to 4th –
he’s bounced back regularly over the past 3 seasons and that’s why he has 17 wins from 37 local starts over that
period – always deserves plenty of respect! (5) TIPSY MONI saw her 5 race winning streak snapped last week when
clearly not at her absolute best – it’s good to see her right back in the box and she still needs to be feared in this short
field. (3) I GET IT raced much better than expected arriving from Dover 2 back then built off that with last week’s
first over victory – has to be taken very seriously, and may still be the 4th betting choice despite his fine form. (1) P L
OSCAR is a game competitor but may be just a notch below the others
RACE 3 – (6) WALKINSHAW N had a useful tightener on 3/19 (off 3 months) then came up BIG last week,
charging home for 2nd in a hot 1:52 mile – if he can grab some live cover tonight, he may be able to rally on by
late...very playable assuming a fair price. (4) LEVINE was off a bad date to his last (sick scratch) but came up with
a big try, just missing to #5 – could be even sharper now, and does get the post edge...very possible. (5) GAMBLIN
GTERROR has a history of big efforts at big prices and last week was the latest addition, wiring the field at 16-1
(even if helped by the 1/10 favorite being driven like a 10-1 shot) – can’t dismiss his chances of repeating, but the
price will be MUCH lower, from a tougher spot. (2) QUALITY BUD was overdriven 2 back, then came up a bit
short in the lane last week – can wake up at any time, but leaning towards others right now. (3) CAVIART SARGEN
T likes to sit back and rally – reasonable one to throw in for 3rd/4th. (1) INDICTABLE HANOVER drops a peg and
lands the pole but still seems a bit below a few of the main players
RACE 4 – Short, but solid field! (5) CREDIT CON disappointed as the heavy favorite 3 back but bounced back
with a very sharp front end score, followed by last week’s “pocket rocket” jogburger – just may be the sharpest right
now of a very well matched bunch! (4) WARRIOR ONE’s fate was sealed last week when he had to back off at the
start but the veteran should be able to be handled more aggressively tonight, and he’s just tough as nails when
on/near the lead – could be a big player. (6) B NICKING ended 2023 with 4 straight wins then came back in fine
form for ’24 as well – came up 2nd best to #5 last time and gets the worst of the draw tonight...but he’s sharp enough
to win if things go his way, and should be offering some good value tonight. (1) MISSISSIPPI STORM has lost a
few MPH on his fastball but the classy 9YO is still a very tough trotter, and continues to produce six-figure seasons
regularly – not sure if he’s quite as sharp as the locals right now, but he can never be counted out from a spot like
this. (3) TACHY ON was in career form for several recent starts but did make a break 2 back then was a little shaky
at the start last week, as well – if he shows up at 100% he can be a threat, but you’d want a good price to try him on
top right now. (2) DWS POINT MAN has raced well since arriving early this year...but may be in a little tough at
this level
RACE 5 – (5) TAKE A CLOSER tripped out to upset at a BIG price two back but then proved it was no fluke by
just missing to a very sharp GDS THUNDER GB the next week – one of several with a legitimate chance in here.
(3) COLD CREEK FELIPE woke up with a much improved effort 2 back then built on that with another good mile
last week – has to be taken very seriously right now. (1) LAZ hadn’t raced since December but was still able to
deliver a sharp first over score right off the bench last week, for a barn that has really come alive lately – absolutely
a license to repeat. (2) BIG DREAM FELLA was looking for 3 in a row last week but lost all chance with an early
miscue – add him to the list of possibilities in this well matched field. (8) WISE THINKING lands all the way
outside for his local debut but he makes his first start for the Dynamic Duo and has shown the ability to leave the
gate – check the tote board for clues? (4) WORLD FOR TWO benefited when #2 broke last week but still faltered in
the lane after cutting the mile – would need a good price to consider on top here. (6) COALFORD BET ALINE was
a decent 3rd last week but lands in a solid field from a tough post. (7) BOOM TOWN BOY needs an easier spot
RACE 6 – (6) PAY STANLEY N seemed overbet last week but came up with what was probably his best mile of
the year, scoring a very impressive victory – he could end up a bit better price from this spot, and a repeat of that last
effort would make him tough (even from Post 6). (4) GLACIS gets post relief and also gets reunited with the pilot
who steered him to victory from Post 8 three starts back – a live trip makes him a player. (2) MAXIMUS RED A
went a strong mile last week but simply proved no match in the lane for the top choice– he has 2 wins and 2 seconds
from his last 4 starts, and remains a very viable threat. (5) TIN ROOF RAIDER is good right now but keeps ending
up in bad spots turning for home – he’s overdue for some trip luck...and that could make him a late threat. (1) FORE
VER FAV has some ugly looking lines but he had some better life in his last, moves all the way inside, and may be
ready to at least put up a competitive effort. (3) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES has been showing some wear and tear
in his last few starts – more than capable with these on his best, but others just seem sharper at the moment. (7) MAJ
OR DESIRE would look a lot better down in class, and from a better post – tough task tonight. (8) ODDS ON PICK
SIX hasn’t been all that sharp lately, and now has to deal with the worst post
RACE 7 – (4) TOP ME OFF has gone some big miles this year but that last victory was truly outstanding, even if
facing a bit softer than these – if he’s a decent price tonight, he’s definitely worth using in yet another well matched
field. (3) EUROBOND has been good lately and was in a good spot last week when he broke on the final turn – a
clean mile makes him dangerous here. (5) ON HIGHER GROUND had a promising first start off the layoff (in the
Open) but disappointed a bit off the class drop in his next– more than capable of beating these with the right trip. (1)
TEXSONG SOPRANO took ALL the $$ two back and was a front end jogburger – was the odds on choice again
last week, but had to work a lot harder to hang on...he’s definitely capable of beating these better ones too, but that
9/5 ML price makes him a little unattractive, from a value standpoint. (6) YANKS DUGOUT threw a trio of weak
efforts then was a little better last week – he’ll turn it around eventually, but hard to back with any real confidence
right now. (2) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS has really been just “ok” most of the year – minor share only.
RACE 8 – (7) P L NOTSONICE returned to action at PcD last week and certainly sharpened in a hurry, even if vs.
easier – she’s made $455K, and banked $121k of it last year...willing to give her a try against the locals, even from
out here. (4) QUEEN OF ALL was finally handled aggressively last week and delivered a sharp front end score –
license to repeat, even if forced to race from a bit off the pace. (3) NO MAS DRAMA followed up a pair of close
2nds 4 and 5 starts back with an absolute blowout, 1:55.1 win on 3/7...only to come up horrible in her last pair – it’s
anybody’s guess which version we’ll see tonight! (1) IMA DIAMOND BABE shows out of town lines that would
make her an excellent fit here...but after last week’s scratch, she’s now been away nearly 4 weeks – another
possibility in yet another difficult race. (6) CALL ME DANI hasn’t always been the best Yonkers horse but she did
race well last week, even if helped by an easy trip – she’s likely looking at a tougher journey from this spot, however
(2) THE BALLYKEEL DEAL has really upped her game since arriving from Canada but may be pushing her limits
just a bit against this crew – good post does help, though. (5) NO TURNING BACK has really been struggling for
some time. (8) LADY JETER gets her first bad draw in ages...and it does figure to really hurt her chances
RACE 9 – (2) FINAL CHEESERECIPE raced very well for his new barn in his YR debut, sustaining a long move
to be right there 3rd – worth a look here, at a nice price. (7) JIMMY CONNOR B is used to holding his own vs.
much better – he drops to a winning level, but the bad draw does suggest using some caution before taking too short
a price. (4) GOTHIC ROCK was a bit better last week, and now gets post and class relief – very logical player, but
may be overbet (and overdriven). (6) MAJOR SHOW has a terrible local win % but does race well more often than
not – good one for underneath. (3) VEL LETSROLL SOUTH has been ok lately, and is one to consider for the
bottom of exotics. (8) ART SCENE is on the upswing since the barn change but likely needs to land in an easier spot
to be a serious player. (1) HEART ON MY SLEEVE draws the pole with Bartlett but is just 8-0-0-1 here this year.
(5) HEISMAN PLAYER may be coming around a bit, but still seems below most of the main players right now