Wednesday Empire Report

soaofny • November 8, 2023

The Empire Report - Wednesday, November 8, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (5) ORLANDO BLUE A was no factor in 3 starts here in Sept. but that was vs. tougher - he

returns from PA showing some solid form vs. cheaper, and catches a very suspect field tonight - could be a

very live player. (2) AUSSIE HANOVER just didn't show up at PcD last week but he wired a bit easier at

Chester 3 down, and just missed cutting the mile 2 starts before that - he did win here earlier this year, and

may be able to have a big say tonight. (1) HES SPECIAL had a good string of starts not long ago but has

been struggling overall since mid-September - he did finish 3rd last week, but was helped greatly by a very

easy trip - big threat here if he brings his best (with the drop and rail), but he's also likely to be overbet. (4)

CAVIART ROCKLAND debuts tonight for our leading trainer/driver team but he has just ONE start since

9/16 and is eligible to be a little rusty - another that may end up overbet. (3) MY CARBON COPY N threw

a total dud last week and he's 0 for 14 here this year - still, chance for a piece (at a price) if he can find one

of his better efforts. (6) IMMA BE has been tailing consistently since mid August and his last was flat out

disastrous - hard to consider right now. (7) GINGER TREE PETE draws poorly off a bad date and has

really been struggling. (8) SWEET TROY needs a much better post in an easier field.


RACE 2 - (1) TOATSMYGOATS was scratched sick here on 10/11 but qualified back nicely at Monti last

week- he's put together a very strong slate here this year (17-5-5-6) and looms the one to catch and beat. (5)

DESIRES CAPTAIN just missed 3 and 4 back to the classy MARINER SEELSTER, and the very sharp

SOUTHWIND ONYX - and half decent trip should make him a major threat tonight. (3) SEAFARER is

nowhere near top form these days but at least he's not looking "dangerous", or lame - he really had no

excuse to not be a bigger threat last week, even though the line doesn't look bad on paper - not impossible,

but does figure to be overbet. (4) POSH ONTHE BEACH was gobbling up ground last week to be a close

2nd- certainly belongs in exotics here but note that he's just 3 for 64 over the last 2 years before considering

on top. (2) DRY RIDGE ACE has been racing well at Fhd. but vs. easier - hard to say if he can do as well

against these 15s, but we'll find out more tonight. (6) FULLBACK has never been the same since last year's

leading trainer squeezed a career mile out of him but he's currently a "piece getter" in this bottom claiming

class - ok for 3rd/4th. (7) IM BENICIO A had an encouraging victory at Monti on 10/24 making his first

start for new connections off a layoff - was no factor at all here last week, however, and tonight's class drop

may or may not help him find a better effort. (8) MINGO JOEL is struggling and now lands Post 8.


RACE 3 - (8) LYONS JOHNNYJNR had a useful tightener at PcD last week after missing 26 days (sick

scratch) - he's been mostly "meh" lately, but has also been facing tougher than these - his barn has been

strong recently, and he may be worth a stab off the class drop tonight...as long as the price is fair. (1) PRES

TIGE SEELSTER is winless in 11 starts since arriving at YR but he's raced well in a bunch of those starts -

hard to back him here with any real confidence, but he is a very logical player from this spot. (3) IM J BEE

N shows a few decent tries at this level at Chester but ships in off a sick scratch - iffy for sure, and also

struggled here in 2022 (1 for 17). (4) BETTER UP won his last pair by tiny noses but hasn't raced since

101/18 - another to add to the "iffy" list! (6) SHANE ADAM raced well here at higher levels years ago, but

it's hard to know how his recent Virginia form stacks up with these - inclined to look elsewhere for the top

slots.. (5) LOUS SASSIN raced erratically in his YR debut, on and off the bit while also drifting on and off

the cones - the jury is still out on him. (2) GOTTA MINUTE N is 7-0-0-0 locally over the past 2 years and

his barn is 34-0-1-1 here in '23 - prefer others. (7) UNIQUE BEACH failed to threaten at a big price from a

similar spot last week.


RACE 4 - (6) HERE WE GO BB was slightly disappointing last start but the addition of Lasix tonight may

provide the explanation - should end up a fair price here, and probably deserves a chance to make amends.

(7) JAVA debuted for a new barn last week and was an impressive winner, blasting right to the top, seating

all her main foes and scoring confidently (despite some time off) - very real chance to take another, even

from Post 7. (5) HUNGRY FOR MONEY left well and sat the pocket behind #7 last start, chasing solidly

all the way to be 2nd best 0 she draws inside her main foes tonight, and should be a legitimate threat once

again. (4) J M SPEAK EASY suddenly found some better form up in Canada from mid-Sept. and was

purchased by (top) local connections after her last start - catches a few solid foes tonight, and perhaps the

tote board might offer some clues to her chances against these. (3) LIL RED ROCKNHOOD weakened in

her only local try and now returns off a win upstate - maybe a minor share? (1) SWEET CHEDDAR was

dismal in her last pair, but if she can find her "better" form she'd at least have a chance for 3rd/4th. (8) BOS

TON JIVE had a couple of ok starts here back in August but she's been plagued by slow starts in Virginia in

her last 3 outings and now draws post 8 for her Hilltop return. (2) CHILLED PROSECCO has been starting

slow and finishing slower in all her recent starts.


RACE 5 - (4) KOVU AS hasn't won in some time but he shows a bunch of competitive efforts in both KY

and NJ - he also shows good early speed and the ability to stay trotting...both of which could give him the

edge in his local debut. (1) DECHAMBO recently added hopples and has stayed trotting in 3 straight starts

in PA - can be a big part of this if he continues to mind his manners. (3) HEARTBREAK BEAT was well

backed off the class drop in his 2nd start for these new connections (at Chester) and just missed - gets

Brennan for his YR debut, and could be a major player. (5) WARRAWEE YIMA did grab a win here back

in May - took some time off after a pair of breaks and returns to YR after a qualifier and start at Pocono -

leaning towards others, but would consider him at the tight price. (2) NEWTOWNS BLACKGOLD doesn't

look bad "on paper" but he's been coming up light at the end of his miles, and needs a better finish to be a

more serious threat. (6) LITTLE MISS YANKEE just missed in her local debut but hasn't been able to build

on that in 3 starts since then - another that needs to up her game a bit. (7) SQUABLE is often good for a

small piece but may have trouble getting even that from out here. (8) TO MY CREDIT was outbrushed by

the 50-1 winner in a very slow 3/4s last week and now lands yet another terrible post.


RACE 6 - The always tough 3-5YO Open: (2) PLEASELETMEKNOW was given a "confidence builder"

last week (after faltering badly first over the start before) and he certainly charged home full of pace at the

wire - he's a talented horse who has beaten these in the past, and we'll give him the slight edge in a field full

of solid performers. (3) GREG THE LEG is always tough when he's near the action and he toughed out a

dead game first over victory last week, notching his 12th win of the season - remains ever dangerous with

another good draw. (1) FEARFUL INTENT could be a good value horse - he was full of pace finishing in

his first try at this level then was killed by horrendous cover last week - he's definitely sharp, draws best,

and may be able to have a say tonight. (4) HAZEVILLE has been 2nd in 4 of his last 5 starts, just missing

in a couple of them - always a reasonable play at any decent price, especially for exotics. (7) RED RIGHT

HAND confirmed that his victory on 10/3 was no fluke when he charged home to win again the next week -

did very well just to be 4th from an impossible spot last week, but another terrible draw will make it hard

for him to grab a decent trip here - not too excited about a wager at that 3-1 ML price. (5) ULTIMAROCA

has been coming up a little short at the end lately and that's a problem against these tough foes - leaning

towards others. (6) BIRTHDAY was getting tired late last week but was able to hang on for the win - tough

draw for tonight in this solid field.


RACE 7 - (3) ENOLA showed promise at 2, delivering a solid 12-3-4-2 slate - she ended up winless at 3

(chasing top OnSS fillies in Canada), but did hit board 9X and trotted some solid miles - she exits the barn

of a 5% trainer and debuts tonight for one of the leading barns in the nation...we'll hop on board. (2) MOM

ENT IN THE SUN is another 3YO filly and her last 3 "non stakes" efforts produced 2 easy wins and a 2nd

- she shows a few miscues, but can definitely be a serious player here with a clean mile. (4) PARTY AT SE

VEN loomed boldly when he popped out of the pocket to take on INN AT RODANTHE but could never

put away that rival (who came back to jog again the next week), and had to settle for a close 3rd - definitely

one that belongs in exotics. (8) FIVE FISH SPECIES has hit board in all 11 local starts and shown that she

can leave hard, even from outside posts - we'll see if she can keep that streak alive. (1) TOMBSTONE was

a nice 3rd in his local debut - had to work hard but was able to win his next start, but takes on tougher

tonight - certainly doesn't hurt drawing the pole with Bartlett. (5) BEACON BEACH has been a steady

performer lately, even from tough spots - could add some value to the bottom of the ticket. (7) ROSE RUN

YANKEE tries hard but he can be prone to miscues and his grinding style could be hampered by Post 7. (6)

WISTERIA HANOVER came up empty last week, and draws poorly in a solid field tonight.


RACE 8 - (8) YS SENSATIONAL CITY disappointed in her local debut but broken equipment may have

played a role - she was very good in her next start, full of pace in the pocket throughout and a possible

winner had she even found room in the lane - willing to give her a try tonight, even from out here. (3) DON

TKARENFIDO won 3 straight but a bad draw last week (after moving up to NW4) left her with no chance

- she did pace home in :27.2 from a hopeless spot, and may be able to do some bigger damage from

tonight's better spot. (6) DEVILISH DREAMS exited our leading barn last week but still went a good first

over mile, just missing out on 2nd to the top choice - a similar effort makes her a big player tonight. (4) SE

AFOOD BEAUTY showed potential at 2 but didn't really live up to expectations at 3, winning only once in

18 starts - she does fit with these, however, and seems like a good one to include in exotics as she returns to

YR. (1) PRINCESS ARONA ran off and hid from the field in her first try for our leading trainer but was

unable to replicate that form in her next 4 starts - could be a little vulnerable here at a relatively short price.

(2) LA MAMBACITA trailed all the way from Post 7 in her local debut and it's hard to really gauge how

well she fits off that one line - we should learn more tonight. (5) SHOWMEMAGIC has no wins or 2nds

this year but she did finish 3rd six times - ok bomb for 3rd, if spreading a bit. (7) UTE BLUE CHIP is just

1 for 21 this year and 2 for 31 lifetime - tough spot arriving from PcD.


RACE 9 - Tough race, with a mixed bag of trotters! (4) IMMANUEL K S added Lasix for his new barn

last start - he did tire, but he was also racing off 6 weeks - eligible to be tighter tonight and the ability is

definitely there. (2) SMOOTH LANDING also adds Lasix this week after fading badly in his last (after

getting REALLY roughed up) - much better spot, and he did jog the week before. (7) YOU GOT IT finally

earned his first victory of the year 2 back...only to get disqualified for bothering his only rival in the stretch

- another big try off a very tough trip last week, and he's definitely sharp right now - consider if the price is

right. (3) OH LOOK MAGIC is another Canadian performer moving to the winningest barn in the country -

this one is in tougher than ENOLA, though, and also exits a pretty strong barn - still, possible! (1) FOOLIS

H MONI is probably a good fit here but she's a 3YO filly taking on males and that may come into play. (5)

IM AN ANDOVER continues to race well with his owner in the bike, often outracing his odds - never a

bad one for exotics. (6) PEMBROKE MONI gave it a good speed try in her local debut, just missing while

dead-heating for 2nd - may be in a tough spot tonight, though. (8) PARTNER DOLAN seems like a solid

trotter and does ship in off a win at PcD - very tough spot, though.

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