Monday Empire Report
The Empire Report - Monday, July 26, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (3) CHRISTEN ME N was in a no-chance spot for his new connections last week but finished
up decently - the double-millionaire 13YO can be handled far more aggressively from this spot, and it's not
the toughest $25K claiming field - gets the nod in the opener. (7) LATE MAIL shipped in from Delaware
and just missed vs. the 20s last week - his (new) owner seems to be enjoying letting somebody ELSE train
his fresh stock this these days (even though he still has his own, large barn), and the results have been
excellent - can easily outperform that 15-1 ML price, and is worth considering. (4) BLUEBIRD RECON's
only win here this year has been at the bottom condition, but he's certainly held his own most weeks vs. this
type - if Holland can find him a decent trip, he can definitely be a player here. (1) TALK SHOW hasn't
been "bad" since the claim, but he hasn't been "good" either - suppose it's time for him to "put up" from this
spot... or perhaps consider another class drop? (5) OFFICIAL DELIGHT has actually been racing well
most weeks but he's just 1 for 45 over the last 2 years (0 for 14 at Yonkers, last 3 yrs.) and just too hard to
endorse on top - ok to use underneath, though! (8) MY MIND IS MADEUP broke a LONG local losing
streak last week and it would be hard to expect him to make it two a row, from Post 8 - sharp enough for a
smaller piece, with a trip. (2) MONTYS PLAY raced evenly after a slow start from the pole last week - jury
still out on whether or not this one really fits at this level. (6) ROCK ON LINE was dull for a couple of
starts before an equipment issue in last - new barn tonight, bad draw, and we'll stick with others.
RACE 2 - (1) JUST PLAIN LOCO was in for $15K back in May 2 - he was 2nd that night and been on a
tear ever since then, not only holding his form as he climbed up the claiming ladder, but actually getting
BETTER along the way - charged home from Posts 7 and 8 in his last pair and now has the pole...which
may give him the edge he needs to beat a few pretty tough foes tonight. (4) SOHO LEVIATHAN A took
several tries just win in NW5000 back in May but once he did, he continued to sharpen and has really
elevated his game since changing barns 3 starts back - comes into this off a pair of strong 2nds and a win in
last, can race on or off the pace, and remains a major threat to take another. (5) FUNATTHEBEACH N
delivered a breathtaking last to first sweep 2 back as he made quite the local debut for the "Super Siblings"
- tried to cut the mile in last and was collared late by a razor sharp Mister Donald A - as sharp as the top
pair, but does draw outside both of them. (3) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD followed the winner last week but
had to settle for 3rd when he drifted a bit into the stretch - he's been a steady player at this level, and can
grab a small piece with an easy trip. (2) AIR FORCE HANOVER threw a dud last week after a series of
solid efforts - would expect him to race conservatively here, and that could help him rebound with a better
effort. (6) MARK WITHA K just missed in this class 3 back, but came up no good in his last - outside draw
makes it hard to recommend him tonight. (1) REVELRY wasn't sharp last week racing off a sick scratch -
gets stuck all the way outside tonight, and in a tough spot even if he's sharper now - pass this week.
RACE 3 - (4) ROBBIE BURNS N threw a major clunker (PcD) in his 2nd start off the claim back on 6/12
but has been good just about every week since then - guessing his connections are tired of facing some
tough horses every week for $11K at Pocono, and are looking to take down the winner's share of this $30K
purse - they have a legit chance to do just that. (3) MAJOR CROCKER A has really upped his game lately,
coming up 2nd best at this level in his last pair (cutting the mile both times) - maybe he can get over the
hump tonight? (6) CHANGE STRIDE N was just reclaimed by his previous connections for $5K more than
they lost him for - he's done fine work for that crew, and can be a threat tonight if the trip goes his way. (5)
EGOMANIA has been a bit better than his recent lines might suggest - drops a notch, and can show up late
if the race plays out to his liking. (8) MARTY MONKHOUSER A is another that was just reclaimed by his
previous connections, but he'll face an uphill battle from all the way out here. (1) PROVEN DESIRE is just
1 for 22 here over the last 2 years, and managed just 1 third from 7 YR tries in 2021 - we'll see if the rail
can help his cause. (7) GIVENUPDREAMING broke a pretty long Yonkers losing streak last week but now
moves up and draws outside - prefer others tonight. (2) KINGSTONS BAD BOY seems to need to be in
easier to do his most damage.
RACE 4 - (5) BRANQUINHO's 4YO season was both shortened and disappointing but after taking 4
months after a few starts early in 2021, he's returned a much better horse, taking his last pair impressively -
steps up to face considerably tougher, but may be sharp enough to beat these too (not a fan of the 9/5 ML,
however). (4) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY beat this class on 4/26 then beat better on 5/17 - drops, gets
some post relief, and a much bigger effort is expected tonight. (2) ONE OFF DELIGHT A was a winner the
last time he was down at this level, and was just 3rd in NW15000 3 starts back - has several valid excuses
recently, and would be no surprise here at all. (1) ORILLIA JOE was a winner vs. a bit cheaper 2 back (in
PA) then raced ok here at this level in his last, despite a tough trip vs. some quality rivals - leaning towards
others, but would hardly be shocked to see the classy 11YO come out on top. (6) VILLIAM went a scary
mile last week, parked every step of the way and still coming at the (easy trip) winner right to the wire -
he'll win a race here very soon...just not sure if he can do it from this spot. (3) HERRICKROOSEVELT N
finally found a (cheaper) field he could beat last week, but it was a pretty slow mile and he didn't look all
that sharp - will need to be much better for a chance to be a serious player with these. (7) BELTANE A and
(8) AWESOMENESS will be hard pressed to have much impact from their outside posts.
RACE 5 - Tough race! (4) SPORTSKEEPER had been on a good roll since mid-May before throwing a
dud in last - he lands in a very questionable $40K claiming field tonight so IF he can shrug off that mile and
rebound to any of his better recent efforts, he'll have a chance to beat these. (6) WEONA SIZZLER A was
just claimed by the hot owner-trainer/trainer combination that is racing LATE MAIL A earlier in the card -
he exits a barn that's been winning at a 33% clip lately, but still may do very well for this team too -
possibility. (2) OHIO VINTAGE was ok from a no chance spot in last, and his trainer sent out a couple of
sharp winners recently - deserves a look with the move inside. (7) KEPT UNDER WRAPS A would look
more appealing with a better post but IF Siegelman can get him away to a quick start, he'd at least have a
chance against these - may be worth a look at 20-1 ML. (8) TONY TOO TALL is sharp right now, but not
sure he can reach from Post 8 against the 40s - would consider at a big enough price. (5) TREASURE
MACH would seem to need easier to be considered for a top slot - maybe can squeeze out a minor share?
(3) YANKEE OSBORNE seems to have regressed in his last couple since the claim - prefer others, (1)
CAVART STETSON was surprisingly sharp in that win 3 starts back but his other local tries have been
lacking - looking elsewhere, even though he drew the pole.
RACE 6 - (3) OSTRO HANOVER got beat dropping to this level last week but he also caught a pretty
strong bunch for this class - he generally can hold his own right up to the Open level, so he definitely
deserves a chance to make amends tonight. (7) MISTER DONALD A steps up to the NW15000 level after
beating NW5000, NW7500, and NW10000 fields....and in his current raging form, it would hardly be a
surprise if he beats these too, even from Post 7 - assuming he's a fair price, he's one that belongs on your
tickets. (2) PERFECTLY CLOSE generally gets his wins vs. cheaper, but he's been holding his own vs.
these (and better) for some time) - definitely one to include in exotics. (4) CAPOZZO had no pop last week
but he usually bounces back from the odd weaker effort - fits well at this level, and is another that should be
considered for exotics. (1) KEY ADVISOR will appreciate the move inside after a pair of 8 holes - does
seem below a few of the top ones, though. (6) THE WILD CARD seems capable of better than he's shown
in 3 local starts, but the outside draw may limit him a bit here - maybe 3rd/4th? (5) SOUTHWIND ONYX
ships in off a bad date and his Buffalo lines suggests he may be a little cheaper - will just watch, for now.
(8) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR lands Post 8 while double-jumping - not a winning formula!
RACE 7 - (8) CATCH THE FIRE banked $439K at 3 (winning the Adios, etc.) after showing plenty of
potential at 2. He was actually serving as a stallion in Ohio this year (while racing!), and that's why he only
made his first start out of the state last week (in NJ) -- it seems pretty unfair that the 4YO was assigned Post
8 for his Hilltop (Open) debut but he does seem to be a potential beast, and he just may be able to overcome
it - giving him the nod, and hoping for a "fair" price. (4) NANDOLO N had an inauspicious Yonkers debut
on 6/14 when he just seemed uncomfortable on the front end, but he's certainly gone a couple of huge miles
since then, including last week's bruising first over victory - he's definitely the alternative if you think #8
may get into some trouble from the far outside. (3) LYONS KING was doing fine work in NJ for the
"Dynamic Duo" so it was no surprise to see him race super returning to Yonkers - seems more than sharp
enough to make the jump to the Open, and should be able to have some say tonight. (7) JACKS LEGEND
N was absolutely flying late from a seemingly hopeless spot last week, not far off the winner at the wire -
gets stuck with Post 7 again, and will need to work out a manageable trip to be around at the wire again. (1)
ALLUNEEDISFAITH N got shut off up the cones in the stretch last week or he could have been a lot
closer - gets a very kind post assignment, and has a shot to land somewhere on the ticket...at a decent price.
(2) FINE DIAMOND looked like a possible winner as they turned for home last week but was unable to
fully sustain his bid into the stretch - maybe a small piece? (5) CASUAL COOL didn't even pretend to be
interested last week from Post 8 - should at least be a bit more competitive with tonight's post relief. (6)
RAUKAPUKA RULER N is picked for "last", but not because he isn't capable - this is just a tough spot.
RACE 8 - (2) REAL LUCKY N has taken his last pair for the hot duo we've mentioned a couple of times
earlier - he moves up a notch tonight but is hitting on all cylinders right now, and should be looking at a
good trip - we'll give him the edge tonight, and like him even more if his barnmates are clicking earlier on;
(5) IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N moves from a red hot barn to a white hot team while currently in very sharp
form - hard to ignore anything the Super Siblings put out on the track these days...particularly a horse as
sharp as this guy. (7) PROVOCATIVEPRINCE N may be able to blast out tonight and find himself a seat,
at a nice price - generally only WINS when he's on the lead, so we'll be using him underneath only (since it
seems unlikely that he'll be able to hit the top). (4) LINCOLNJAMES rallied for 2nd in his local debut
behind the razor sharp winner, but was unable to get involved in his next (before being scratched sick, last
week) - willing to include underneath. (1) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N has been no factor in his recent starts
but draws the pole tonight and may get a wake up call - would still need a good price to use him, even from
the rail. (3) GUMPTION was in the right place at the right time to pull off the upset last week - moves up in
class now, and it'll be harder for him to be as fortunate. (8) HIGHLAND TARTAN certainly fits well
enough with these, but lands Post 8 for a new barn and may have trouble reaching. (6) PACING MAJOR N
has been away since Dec., draws outside, and Stratton opts for #2 - we'll pass (and watch) this week.
RACE 9 - (1) FOREVER FAV comes into this with 4 wins and 2nd from his last 7 starts and got parked the
mile in the other two - he happens to catch a field with several very sharp horses tonight but this guy draws
the pole and that means the road to the winner's circle goes through him. (8) SOMEBEACH BARON has
come into career form at Pocono, with 3 wins and a 2nd in his last 4 starts - can't believe they'll ship in to
Yonkers just to tour the oval from Post 8 - deserves plenty of respect! (7) EFFRONTE A has earned
$43,250 in the 4 starts since his world class owner/trainer decided to let the hottest guy on the planet take
over the training...and that's more than this guy was able to win in all of 2020-21 PRIOR to the move (30
starts) - he has a legit chance once again, despite Post 7. (5) BARBADOS is 2 for 2 since the recent claim,
and paces powerfully at the end of his miles - his chance for a mild upset go up considerably if there's some
battling up front. (4) WHITE HAIR ROCKS shipped in sharp and went a BIG mile, giving the top choice
all he could handle before finally weakening a bit to 3rd in the stretch - the (major) issue is that somehow
he's just 1 for 52 over the last 2 years! (3) PICARD A doesn't feel like he's in "top" form but he keeps
picking up good pieces for a hot barn - can't be ruled out tonight. (2) HUNDIE N beat a NW7500 field here
on 6/18 but was then scratched twice, and forced to requalify - he's a nice horse, but lands in a very tough
spot tonight. (6) KEYSTONE PHOENIX definitely does his best work with cheaper.
RACE 10 - Good race! (1) ON THE CARDS N has 3 local tries - he won wire to wire from Post 5, was
parked the mile from Post 8 and still a close 3rd, then a 2nd from the 8 hole against the streaking LYONS
KING - there are a few REALLY sharp horses in here, but the draw earns this guy top billing. (4) SAN
DOMINO A decided to bring his absolute "A Game'" last week and was an extremely impressive winner -
if he can match that effort tonight, he'll be one very tough hombre once again. (7) MICKY GEE N was in
stretch traffic last week or would have been much closer at the end - he's actually very sharp right now, and
an excellent value play with that 20-1 ML price! (3) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH no longer surprises when he
hangs with these as that's become expected from him - the right trip puts him right there on the wire, and he
figures to be a decent price (again) tonight. (2) BRONX SEELSTER has been more consistent lately, and
even thrown some pretty big efforts - still has to show that he can beat this caliber but still willing to use
him underneath, for now. (5) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A beat this class 4 back but that was on the lead,
from the rail - have a feeling he'll be looking at a smaller piece now, vs. some pretty tough competition. (6)
WINDSUN RICKY is undeniably sharp, but does seem a notch below a few of the main players here. (8)
UPTOWN FUNK is enjoying a stellar season so far, but faces an uphill battle from Post 8 tonight.
RACE 11 - (4) MAJOR BETTS always had plenty of ability - he banked $135K as a 2YO and took a
1:49.4 mark....he equaled that record in his first start back at 3 and went some big NYSS miles before
making a costly break in the Final - looked good in his first start back at 4 but then started to struggle a
bit...was recently purchased and upon landing in the barn with the "Dynamic Duo", just missed in his
qualifier to mega-talented stablemate Nicholas Beach - won at PcD after that, and deserves the nod in his
YR return...but it's no "freebie"! (3) GRAY DRAGON would normally have been a stickout in here, but has
the misfortune of running into the top choice tonight - definitely talented enough to put up a major tussle if
#4 isn't on his best game tonight. (2) TIGER BARON upset this class at 31-1 4 starts down and was in total
no chance spots in his last pair - moves inside, and should be able to have much more of a presence, (6)
CAN B PERFECT has been ultra consistent all year, but lands in a tough spot for the 2nd week in a row -
maybe can find a way to rally for a small piece? (1) GINGRAS BEACH is moving up but is in good form
right now - maybe can use the rail to land somewhere on the ticket? (5) FUNKNWAFFLES had been sharp
so it was a surprise to see him get away so poorly from the pole last week (and then never enter contention)
- maybe can save ground and squeeze out a small piece? Both (7) CARLISIMO and (8) BO MACH do fit
at this level, but both also figure to be too far back to really do any damage this week.
RACE 12 - (4) SHOOBEE DOO A has been racing in PA, Delaware, and NJ and doing major damage in
all 3 states - every line looks terrific, but last week's incredible :25.1 third quarter was amazing, especially
since he still lost by only a nose (to a pretty nice horse, in a very good field) - this is no easy field to ship in
to, but he still figures to be a very short priced winner in the finale. (1) PYRO drops and draws the rail after
just missing in last week's Open - probably the logical play if looking to go against the top one. (3) MACS
JACKPOT finally got off the 2021 schneid with last week's sharp front end score - have to include him in
exotics. (2) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER is moving up, but has no problem hanging with these when sharp -
another logical one for underneath. (5) KINNDER JACKSON does his best work with a bit cheaper, but
may be able to save ground and squeeze out a minor piece from this spot. (6) AINTNOBETTOR A held
nicely for 2nd after getting outbrushed by the winner to the final turn last week - not sure he'll find a way to
make his presence felt from Post 6, though. (7) AMERICAN ADMIRAL has missed a month and is likely
moving way up in class against the locals - will just watch for now. (1) YANKEE BOOTS was horrible for
a new barn last week and goes for another new barn tonight...from Post 8 -- wait for a better spot to
consider.