Thursday Empire Report

The Empire Report - Thursday, July 27, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - Excelsior A, 2YO Filly Trot: (2) GOODBYE TO YOU was 2-1 in a NYSS race 2 back but was

hot in the pocket and may have run over the tiring/breaking leader to the top of the lane - held for 3rd in a

NYSS last week, and now drops down to face a bit easier - maybe she can wire these? (5) FORCE OF NAT

URE was 2nd in this class 2 back then stuck way too far back in her last - gets a major switch to Bartlett,

and that 12-1 ML does look tempting. (8) REALLY DONT CARE won an overnight from Post 7 to start

her career, then was a well bet 3rd in a NYSS race - no chance in her last but drops down tonight, and may

have a chance to be there at the end if some trip luck comes her way. (6) VERSACE BLUE CHIP looked

very good wiring the field at Stga. in her career debut but broke in the pocket last week - the ability is there

for sure, but she does figure to be overbet tonight. (7) KAROLINA SOLVEIG landed on a picture perfect

trip in her career debut and scored impressively at Tioga - clearly she has the ability...but will she be able to

find a decent trip? (3) BULVILLES WINNER had been staying flat and doing well before a miscue in her

last - maybe 3rd/4th? (1) KJ ANGEL has the rail with Gingras but struggled in 3 of her 4 times behind the

gate. (4) GONE CRAZEE is probably better suited to NY Fair competition

RACE 2 - Excelsior A, 2YO Filly Trot: (3) BARN CJ is now 3 for 3 (all jogburgers) for a barn that seems

to come up with these "ready early" types every year- she won't be much of a price, but she's certainly the

one to knock off! (6) DUTEE CHAND S just missed in a NYSS race to start her career then broke putting

in a good move in her next - dropped down in class last week but seemed to step on a rival's wheel after

leaving well, landed in the back then re-rallied in a big way to end up 2nd - solid threat if she behaves

tonight. (7) TWILIGHT DEO hails from top connections, minds her manners and finished 2nd in both

career starts - can't be counted out, even from Post 7. (4) SHIV had good trot finishing vs. better two back,

just missing 3rd - weakened in her last, but the drop down from NYSS could make her a player. (2) DISTA

NCE hasn't really clicked yet but does hail from top connections. (5) FIYA seems a notch below these, but

has license to grab a piece since she does behave. (1) MY SPECIAL T seems overmatched right now

RACE 3- Excelsior A, 2YO Filly Trot: (3) DOZEN was well backed in her first career start (NYSS at

Stga.) and finished strong for 3rd - dropped to the Excelsior A level last week and while she "only" won by

a neck, Zeron couldn't have been more confident through the lane - we'll give her the call tonight. (1) MIMI

dropped in 3rd last week, took over to the top of the lane with her first over move but couldn't hold off the

top one at the wire - we'll see if she can turn the tables tonight. (6) BARN DREAMER, like barnmate

BARN CJ, is undefeated to start the year - that streak may be in danger vs. the top pair, but she certainly

shouldn't be taken lightly, especially with Bartlett back up. (2) ROOTS had a useful start at Tioga where

she rallied for 4th- draws inside, and could easily outperform that 20-1 ML price (8) CHAMPAIN has gone

behind the gate 6X and stayed flat each time - McGivern faces a tall task getting her into the hunt from out

here, but a few jumpers could really help her cause. (4) RILEYS REBEL started her career with a 3rd at

Stga. but was scratched sick from her last - not sure what to expect tonight. (5) SANTA DEL RAE and (7)

GRACELOVESLACE seem like the outsiders right now, and will need to do better

RACE 4 - NYSS, 2YO Filly Trot: (1) R MELINA was sent off as the odds on choice for last week's victory

at Tioga...which should come as no surprise to anybody who saw what a HUGE recovery she made after

the miscue at Stga. - she faces a few very legitimate foes here, but will be very tough if she avoids any

breaks. (3) SENORITA PALEMA charged on by in the lane to win at Stga., then came up 2nd best to the

very promising DATE NIGHT HANOVER ($600K yearling) at Tioga - major player here, but not a fan of

that 6/5 ML price. (7) COMMUNION MONEY only brought $17K as a yearling but she's been very

impressive in her brief career - she was handled very conservatively last start (after a miscue the week

before) but was FULL of trot in the lane for 3rd- some trip luck could put her right in the hunt (2) SHIRIN

was solid for her new barn last week, avoiding any miscues and finishing 2nd - could grab a good piece

tonight too. (5) STAR ATTR ACTION couldn't sustain her 2nd move last week but gets a switch to Gingras

tonight, and could come up with a better try. (6) HURRIKANE SWEETIE is probably a notch below these,

and also draws poorly. (4) CROWBAR GIRL won at Buffalo right out of the box but broke in her next then

was no factor last week

RACE 5 - Excelsior A, 2YO Filly Trot: (5) MOB CANDY flashed good speed to make the top from the

outside last week, battled hard with BARN CJ then held nicely to 2nd after being collared - gets Yannick

tonight, and may be able to just steal this one on the front end. (2) THE GREAT CB was hard to gauge

coming into her first start but she raced super at Tioga, putting in a sustained rally for 3rd (and not far

behind the top choice) - license to reverse that decision tonight. (1) EVANGELINA floated from Post 8 at

Tioga but made a break in 5th on the first turn, was well back after finally landing but made a BIG recovery

to finish 5th, only 6 lengths back - could be a legitimate threat tonight with a clean mile. (7) DENIM N

DIAMONDS held her own in a pair of NYSS races then held well for 3rd after dropping down last week,

losing to a couple of promising fillies - the obvious concern tonight is the draw. (6) MS TITAN tried to cut

it in a NYSS at Stga. at 120-1, and really wasn't a terrible 4th - maybe she can grab a small piece here? (4)

CAPICU broke in 2 of her last 3 starts and does feel a bit risky right now. (8) KJ SPECTACULAR draws

worst in her first try at this level - prefer to watch for now. (3) WOW LOVE broke in her first try and was

no factor in her next.

RACE 6 - NYSS, 2YO Filly Trot: (5) SADBIRDSTILLSING had 2 nice preps then was an excellent 2nd

to R MELINA in her debut at Tioga - we'll give her the narrow edge over another very sharp foe in here. (6)

SISTER MARY MAUDE impressed early for a low profile trainer/driver and was immediately swooped up

by a top shelf team - she's now won all 3 NYSS starts, and clearly has to be feared tonight! (7) SEVEN

YEAR ITCH has been solid all along, and her best effort came when Sears was on board - very tough draw,

but may still be able to beat a lot of these. (4) BILLIE E was 2nd best at Stga. but made a break last week

with Sarah S. in the bike - Ake is back on board now, and a clean mile puts her right in this. (8) HIPPIE

SHAKE has stayed trotting and picked up pieces along the way - maybe 3rd/4th at a big price? (3) CHAPA

LONIA shows a mixed bag of tries but did pick up a 3rd with Bartlett - deja vu? (1) ERIN gave it a good

speed try when 2nd to SENORITA PALEMA but tired in her last - has to avoid being overdriven if she

hopes to rebound. (2) JEANNIES ACTION really seems badly overmatched here

RACE 7 - (2) BEACON BEACH arrives for new connections after establishing a new 1:56.2 mark in his

last start in Ohio (he probably would have won his prior start as well, had his (very) young pilot not started

driving him with a clear lead in the stretch) - he's off a bad date, but we'll assume that his new crew will

have him ready to go. (8) CHEF ROCCO disappointed here on 7/13 but bounced back in his last, losing by

a nose in the very last step- Bartlett will likely send him out hard, and a good start puts him right in the hunt

(3) DARK MIND hit board in 3 of his last 4 PA starts and hails from a strong barn - could easily grab a

piece in his YR debut. (6) HL BALLERINA hit the top then broke 2 back, then finished well for 4th last

week after a bad trip - may be able to add some value to the exotics. (4) FLARES ZIVA added Lasix 2 back

but folded after cutting the mile - raced better when 3rd last week, and may continue to improve. (7)

DRINK UP DRINK UP ships in to a new trainer after winning 2 in a row in Ohio - very tough spot for

local debut, however, and may be handled a bit conservatively tonight. (1) BANGING IN THE HALL is

now 0 for 35 - maybe the rail can help him grab a minor share? (5) STRATEGIC is off a month for a new

barn - feels like a work in progress, right now

RACE 8 - (1) TOCCOA FALLS was (shockingly) falling apart for our highest % trainer so his owner (who

has horses with most of the highest % trainers at YR) moved him to our trainer with the most wins (from

whom he purchased this horse back in May) - he qualified back super, and may be ready to start heading

back in the right direction. (2) MAX recovered from an early miscue to race well for 3rd, then just missed

last week after being used very hard - goes for a new barn tonight, and definitely can be a big threat. (3)

VALI HANOVER is yet another getting a barn change tonight, though he's exiting a couple of very sharp

outfits - he's hit board in 10 of his last 11 starts (broke in the other), and shouldn't be taken lightly. (8) ALL

CHAMPY remains as tough as ever, and comes into tonight off a win and a pair of 2nds - will need lots of

trip luck to get it done from out here, though. (5) GAELIHILL can hang with these with the right trip, but

may have a hard time getting that tonight - would consider only if the price is decent. (7) ABRUZZO has

shown legitimate ability at times, but he drops in for a tag after a tiring front end try, followed by a break

last week- seems iffy right now, but the 20-1 ML price makes him worth at least a look. (6) AFTER ALL

PAUL doesn't seem sharp enough to be a threat right now...and that also holds true for (4) P L OSCAR

RACE 9 - (3) AMBASSADOR HANOVER has earned $741K and a chunk of that has come right here at

Yonkers - he has only 4 starts so far in 2023 but 2 of them produced 2nds in fields much tougher than this

one - the one to catch, and beat. (5) SWEET SOUL DAVID was never able to get involved in last week's

Open but he's been very solid all year, and should be able to find a much better effort tonight - very usable

in exotics. (6) HL REVADON took some time off after tailing badly and returned in fine form, but he made

an unexpected miscue in the pocket last week, and we'll see if he bounces right back, or if that was a bad

sign. (2) SOUTHWIND ARTURO added hopples this year and has become a very reliable performer - he

picked up a nice 2nd bumping up to this level last week, & another piece is within reach. (7) MISSISSIPPI

STORM likely needed his last after taking a few weeks off - drops out of the Open, and has a chance to

rally for a piece, even from Post 7. (4) JOXTER is likely a notch below the main players but he's not a bad

bomb for 3rd.4th. (8) NO MAS DRAMA will be coming from far back and may need to wait for a better

spot to show her best stuff. (1) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE seems overmatched, even starting from the pole

RACE 10 - (6) PERRON has taken 3 in a row and 5 of his last 7 - he's shown that he can handle a variety

of trips, and that could come in handy with several possible speed types in here - still deserves top billing.

(7) CANTKEEPMIASECRET has been sharp for some time, can also handle a variety of trips and tends to

go off at some pretty good prices - definitely worth considering, assuming another good price. (5) EPOS

OSTERVANG DK was a huge overlay when 2nd at 36-1 last week, considering he's been a very reliable

performer in this class - could hurt losing Zeron/Bartlett tonight, but still a good one for exotics even with

his owner in the bike. (8) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN saw his 4 race winning streak snapped last week

when a close 3rd (after cutting the mile) - could easily bounce right back, but the prospects of a tough trip

are definitely there from Post 8. (3) CRESCENT BEAUTY is one of a few horses that improved instantly

upon joining this barn - like a couple of others, however, that form has started to go the other way recently,

tiring to 3rd two back then really fading last week - hard to know what to expect in here. (2) CAPSTONE

actually raced better than expected shipping in to a new barn last week - still not 100% certain that he fits

well with these, but we'll learn more tonight. (4) FASHION FOREVER can grab pieces at times, but really

could use some class relief. (1) UP HELLY AA draws best, but would still be a surprise against this bunch.

RACE 11 - (2) BAR COINS came into his 7/6 start with a weak 13-1-0-0 record for the year, and looked

like a 50-1 shot on paper...but in just his first start for a trainer that has produced some incredible results

with fresh stock recently, he was sent off at 12-1, driven like a 4/5 shot, and improved by about 15 lengths

to score in a career best 1:56 - he was sitting a very good trip last week but made a costly break on the final

turn (perhaps too hot?), and lost a chance to be 2nd to the stickout winner- has to be worth a good look here

at that 9-1 ML price. (3) CAL MILES N SHELL is really developing nicely this year, going some big miles

with his owner/trainer on board before racing very well with catch drivers the last 3 weeks - finished 2nd to

a Yonkers Trot finalist in his last, and looms a big threat tonight. (1) BRAYDEN VICTORIES only has 8

career starts but has already raced for 3 different barns - just picked up his first win for his current trainer,

and could be a legitimate player in his Hilltop debut. (4) STONGERWITHLINDY is just 2 for 43 lifetime

but has been 2nd or 3rd 19X - ok to include underneath. (6) ROSE RUN YANKEE is very good right now

but has been more of a "grinder" than a "speed" horse- we'll see how he does in what figures to be a quicker

mile than he's used to. (5) AVACAKES has missed 3 weeks and that may hurt in this pretty solid field. (7)

LIVINGONTHERAIL and (8) MATT SO SURE are the outsiders...both literally and figuratively

RACE 12 - (1) PEDRO HANOVER raced super for months- hit a bit of a rough patch for a while but was

better 2 back then very good in his last, holding 2nd behind the fire-breathing, stone dust scorching mile

from AMERICAN MERCURY - he'll be very tough in the finale. (2) ICE HOUSE has a couple of ok tries

and a couple of recent excuses - he's missed 3 weeks, but maybe that'll help him find a good one for tonight

(3) CAUGHTINALANDSLIDE has 4 thirds from 8 starts since a barn change this spring - draws well, and

may be able to grab another smaller piece tonight. (6) BIG SIR hasn't worked out since being claimed for

$50K back in Feb. - he's now 0 for 9 on the year, but he does have a chance to at least perk up for a piece

now at the bottom level. (7) FREQUENT IMAGE looked strong for over 3/4s of a mile last week...then just

stopped badly from the head of the lane - he drops right back in the box, and Bongiorno does jump off #4 to

drive him- maybe better this week? (8) MAXIMUS RED A feels like he's fallen off form and also lands the

worst post - tough week to make a case for him. (4) LYONS PRIDE made headlines with that 10 hole win

on 5/20 (in NJ) but has just one 5th place check in the six starts since then - if Bongiorno bails, so will we.

(5) BUCKEYE EMERY upset a cheap field at PcD in his last, but just seems a bit cheap for these.