Thursday Empire Report

The Empire Report - Thursday, September 23, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (8) ISLAY N had been very sharp at this level for some time, and finally picked up her first local

win of the season last week - she'll need a lot to go her way from Post 8, but she does seem sharp enough

for a chance to win if that happens...worth a play IF the price is juicy enough from out here. (2) MORE

THAN MANY just missed 3 back, then was 3rd last week (in the race the top choice won) - obviously has

a post advantage over that rival tonight, and may be able to use it to come out on top - very logical threat.

(3) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE has been pretty dull most weeks but she did come to life for a couple of

starts when down at this level not too long ago - would hardly be a surprise to see her come up with a much

better effort tonight. (4) MOTU MOONBEAM N was very good for quite a while here earlier this year but

then her form declined quickly - recent Monti efforts suggest she's good enough right now to at least be in

the mix here, especially with her ability to leave the gate. (5) SANDY WIN had been racing well upstate

but was too far back last week to threaten in her YR return - might be able to at least grab a piece with a

better trip tonight. (6) FREE EXCHANGE wasn't bad 2 and 3 back but then made an unexpected break last

week - she's just 1 for 38 over the last 2 years, so hard to consider for more than a smaller piece regardless.

(7) ALKIPPE returns from Fhd. off a pair of wins over cheaper - might have picked her higher if not for the

poor draw. (1) MISS MARY MACH seems a bit cheap - newcomer is on the "watch list" for tonight.

RACE 2 - (6) GREG was sent off at 4/5 upon arrival from Canada and was a winner until the very last step

(and the horse who beat him came back to win again the next start, with an 8 hole 2nd the week after) -

been away since 8/26 but assuming he's ready, he's definitely the one to knock off. (2) ORIGINAL SMOK

EY is 0 for 21 but did hit board in 13 of those losses - has speed, stays trotting, and should be able to pick

up a nice chunk in his YR debut. (5) DEWEY HALL was a no-threat 5th in his local debut but that was a

much better field - definitely a chance to be a bigger player with this bunch. (3) DRAVEN HANOVER is 0

for 21, but she's hit board 10X - definitely a logical threat for a piece, and her chances go up if a local catch

driver ends up in the bike (1) SV ROYAL FLUSH has good speed but just doesn't finish well enough most

weeks - small piece? (8) CANE GANG did stay trotting in his first attempt for a new barn but finished well

behind the top choice - now draws Post 8 after being away for a month, and will likely be too far back to

threaten for more than a minor share. (4) CHERRY MASON does have a win here this season....but it was

in a 1970s-like 2:04.3 mile...seems a bit below the main players. (7) ENDYMION broke in his last 2 local

tries and returns from PcD having missed a month, and drawing Post 7 - will just watch for tonight

RACE 3 - (1) SEZANA N is hard to back with confidence as she's 0 for 21 on the year....but she's raced

very well any number of times against even better than these, and her barn had a big night last Thursday -

maybe this is a field she can take wire to wire? (4) SCANDALICIOUS is just 1 for 24 on the year but like

the top choice, has raced very well in a lot of her starts - would be worth a look IF the price is decent. (2)

THE CHARGING MOA N went on the shelf for 10 weeks after a sick scratch but her qualifier does look

ok - if she's close to 100%, this is a field where she can do some damage with her late kick. (8) KAITLYN

N is yet another that's winless in 2021 (0 for 19) but her overall form is much better lately - willing to use

in exotics at a nice price. (3) E R HILARY moves to her 4th barn in 4 weeks and her overall form remains

sharp - she does step up a notch in class, though, and that may see her taking home a little smaller piece

tonight. (6) ROCKIN THE BOYS A lands in the cheapest local spot she's seen in some time, but it's hard to

say if she's sharp enough to capitalize - mixed feelings about her chances tonight. (7) CLASSY CHAPEL N

has found some form at PcD vs. cheaper - draws poorly while moving up in class tonight, and we're leaning

to several others. (5) SOUND IDEA just hasn't been sharp enough lately - maybe when she gets a drop?

RACE 4 - Tough race: (7) BACARDI is definitely as good as any of these, but continues to find himself

too far back to get there for the top prize - another outside post won't make things any easier, but maybe

there will be enough pace up front for him to make his late charge pay off - the price should certainly be

fair. (2) INFINITE ZETTE is just 1 for 14 but does have 5 seconds - move inside may have him in a good

spot to pick up win number 2. (4) KING JIMMY actually won 3 straight here in this same NW2 class and

the money cap has been moved up so that he can fit again - he seems to have leveled off a bit but remains a

legitimate threat. (3) CHROME PACKAGE is 0 for 9 at Yonkers but has hit the board 6X - good one to use

underneath! (5) PREACHER MAN drew Post 8 for his only local try and never had a prayer - he may be

able to have a bigger say tonight from this more favorable spot....not impossible. (1) JULA MAGICIAN is

a fresh face from Canada and these types have done well here in the past - mixed feelings about his chances

but can see considering him if the price is attractive enough. (6) CHURCH SOUT used a quick start to grab

a good trip last week but he tired to 3rd at the end - he's now 1 for 43, and others just look more appealing.

(8) SAN CRISTOBAL draws Post 8 after a miscue in last - have to believe a conservative effort is coming

RACE 5 - (2) CASH ROLL was an easy winner in her local start this year, even if it was vs. cheaper -

returns from NJ off a solid try, and lands inside for a new barn - likes to win races so we'll give her the

narrow edge. (1) SHELLIE DE VIE was racing well here vs. better recently, and returns from The Swamp

off a pair of sharp tries - would probably have been the top choice if not for her 0 for 25 record this year!

(3) WATCH MY LUCK was a winner in her last start across the river, and was holding her own vs. better

here not long ago - definitely could outperform that 8-1 ML price. (4) COWGIRL LILLY was 2nd best to

the stickout winner in her local debut and is eligible to be even sharper this week - that 5/2 ML price may

leave her as a bit of an underlay in this competitive field, though. (5) PAIGES GIRL has been picking up

smaller pieces consistently, and remains a good option for the bottom of exotics. (6) GREENHILL HANO

VER probably needs an inside post to be a player vs. this type - wait for a better spot. (7) TELL ME A

JOKE should appreciate the drop...but not the post - tough spot to look for improvement. (8) SHADY

MADAM draws horribly for her YR debut and also seems a little cheap - will just watch, for now

RACE 6 - Good race! (3) CHAPOLIER disappointed a couple of times here when 2nd at short prices but

he was starting to click recently then won the Excelsior A Final last start after being purchased - faces some

other interesting foes here, but we'll give him the tepid nod. (1) VICTORIANA was a stablemate to the top

choice and she'll be debuting for a new barn tonight as well - eligible to improve significantly for her new

connections. (2) FIRST GUNNER shipped in from Iowa with a 24-16-6-0 slate -- jogged in his first local

try, was quickly sold, then jogged last week for his new connections....faces his toughest field to date, and

we'll see if he's up for it. (7) ILLUMINATA was facing NYSS fillies this year and had weeks where she

held her own - gets Dube in the bike tonight, and he's won a LOT of races for this barn over the past few

years - worth a look at the right price. (5) YUCATAN PARTY MAN finally broke his maiden in start #24

then came right back to win start #25 - just missed from Post 8 last week and clearly he's in career form at

the moment - we'll see if he can hang with this tougher bunch too. (4) DA BOOGIE MAN was a wire to

wire winner last week but was definitely getting leg weary late - will need to be a bit better to contend with

these. (6) INSURED AM AS was solid at 2 and 3, banking over $100K and her local record is a strong

5-1-2-1 -- the tough field (and outside draw) will make her a good price tonight, and she's not a bad one for

fans of the longshots to try. (8) FAWN DE TOUCH draws Post 8 after a clunker in last - pass for now

RACE 7 - (7) RACINE BELL was off a month to her last start but still went her usual big effort, leaving

for position then coming first over into a hot third panel (pacing her own quarter in :26.4), then holding

very well for 3rd in the lane - she's been an iron mare this year, and can get back to the winner's circle

tonight. (1) NORTH STAR IDEAL has really blossomed this year, and her current form spree lands her up

at the Open level - barn has been red hot for some time, and the good draw puts this mare in the mix for a

big piece. (3) DRAGON ROLL may be overlooked here (as she doesn't have the rail this week) but she's

shown that she CAN race from off the pace too - if she's a good price, use her in exotics. (6) IMPRINCESS

GEMMAA goes some HUGE miles at times, but is just as likely to disappoint on any given week - the "x

factor" tonight. (4) NATASHA raced primarily in Florida at 2 and 3, then missed her entire 4YO campaign

- the patience has obviously paid off, though, as in just 8 starts as a 5YO she's marched right up to the Open

level...and the way she's been looking, she can make some noise in here too! (2) JIVE DANCING A has

maintained her form very well even at this top level - draws inside, and is always possible for a small piece.

(8) SIESTA BEACH is a beast week in and week out....but tonight's post assignment leaves her with few

options and she may have to wait another week to strut her best stuff again. (5) DBLDELITEBRIGADE N

wasn't at her absolute best last week, but was also racing off a bad date - not sure what kind of trip she'll get

from this spot, and clearly she can do much better than this rating with a good one

RACE 8 - Very tough race: (3) BOOM CITY is just 3 for 46 but for many of those races, he was in lower

% barns (and he does have 22 seconds and thirds) - seems to have improved since the barn change 4 back,

has speed and gets Bartlett, and may just be in a winnable spot for his local debut. (2) TRANQUILITY K

just missed in his last 2 after dropping out of the NYSS races but he was favored in those starts and will be

heavily backed again tonight - he also made a couple of breaks on half mile tracks recently, so that does

make him at least a bit risky. (1) BRILLIANT BOB has been no good at all in his last couple but prior to

that he had a win and a rallying 3rd - if he shows up on his best game, he can have a say here. (6) REEL

EM IN raced ok here in his first couple of starts but then seemed to level off - if things get testy up front

(and maybe a couple of breakers), he'd have a chance to rally for a piece at a big price. (4) BROOKROAD

MASTER won here as a youngster but he missed his entire 4YO campaign - seems like he was doing well

after returning at 5, but that form has flattened out lately upstate - mixed feelings. (8) SPOTLESSREPUTA

TION has been doing excellent work, but with cheaper - he faces tougher AND draws Post 8, so insist on a

pretty good price if he's your top choice. (5) EXCHEQUER grabbed a perfect trip win over cheaper 3 back

but failed to replicate that mile after moving up in class - needs to do better to be a player. (7) CHERRY

RED likely needs a much better draw to be part of the mix

RACE 9 - (2) LOVELY DONNA conceded from her outside post last week but still rallied well at the end

to be 4th - drops, moves inside, and she's proven that she can beat this type - good week to give her a shot.

(5) DELITFULCATHERIN N is now 6 for 6 in the U.S. but will be class tested tonight as she moves out of

age-restricted "NWPM" races to take on these tough older mares - fully expect her to race very well, but

her streak could definitely be in jeopardy. (4) NEVERFORGETWHOUR returned sharp off the layoff, just

missing in her first start back before grabbing wins in her last pair - would be no surprise at all. (7) ROSE

RUN VICTORY looks like she's going to be a nice pickup for her new connections but the poor draw may

leave her taking a conservative approach in her local debut - perhaps the tote board will offer some clues?

(3) LYNBAR ROSE N has been sharp at Fhd, but may not have that same success against these tougher

foes - maybe 3rd/4th? (6) PETTYCOAT BUSINESS finished well for 3rd last week but also enjoyed an

easy trip from the pole - may not be able to do the same damage from out here. (1) MALNIFICENT drops,

but hard to say if she's sharp enough right now to take advantage. (8) IM VERY SPECIAL seems to race

well out of town most weeks...but then disappoint here at YR - Post 8 only makes it tougher

RACE 10 - (1) BETTERB CHEVRON N rallied to beat this class 3 back while in the midst of a nice form

spree - had no shot from the back chasing a blazing mile in her next, then was stuck in the back in the Open

last week, off a bad date - gets right back in, drops a bit, and may benefit from a contested pace in front of

her. (7) SHES PUKKA N will likely look to blast off the wings, even from out here - IF she's able to make

the top, she's shown that she CAN beat these...willing to consider if the price is right. (2) SNOBBYTOWN

certainly hasn't been racing poorly, but it's been some time since she last got her picture taken - she's more

than eligible to beat these, but she's hard to take a short price with right now. (5) SURREAL FEELING has

been overshadowed all year by full sister RACINE BELL, but this mare is having a career year of her own

- always a possibility against this type. (6) SHEIKH YABOOTY N was no factor in NJ last week but it

seems that most of this barn does much better here at The Hilltop - tough spot tonight, but chance at a

piece, at a nice price. (4) SPORTS FLIX is a solid performer, but seems to be a bigger threat one level

down. (3) DANCE CLUB is having an excellent year, and was a winner last week (her 7th of the season) -

might find this bunch a little too tough, though

RACE 11 - (2) SWISS HOUSE ON FIRE was one of several horses from this barn that showed up ready

last week - assuming he shows up in the same fine form tonight, he'll have a decent chance to take this crew

wire to wire too. (3) BIG BAD SWAN has had trouble staying flat since being purchased by this barn... that

last qualifier may have given the confidence he needs to deliver his best tonight - and that would make him

a legitimate threat. (6) COCKTAILS N DREAMS was a dullish 5th last week but was racing off a bad date

- he's capable of much better, and we just may see it tonight...consider. (4) MOON BRIDGE has burned

some $$ here so far and figures to be well backed again - sticking with others on top, but willing to include

him underneath. (7) YOU MAKE IT EASY has a pair of 2nds from 3 local starts and may very well have

been a winner in that lone loss if not for a costly final turn miscue (while challenging) - may have a little

too far to come tonight, however. (8) HOOLIE N HECTOR has gone some good miles here this year but

tonight's draw may leave him with too much work to do. (5) BABY MAKER HANOVER raced very well

for a couple of starts before an unexpected dud in his last - not sure what to expect from him tonight. (1) I

HAVE A DREAM seems to have regressed since switching barns a few starts back.

RACE 12 - (1) DEMETER N hasn't been the most reliable mare this year but her record is still solid here at

YR (14-5-2-3) - good finish last week (off the ground saving trip) and she drops while drawing the pole

tonight - should be able to come up with a big effort here. (8) TURNTHEFROWNAROUND might be the

"best" mare in here but she lands the worst post, and did make a pair of recent miscues here at Yonkers -

make sure to get a fair price if using her on top. (3) WALTZWITHSIERRAA returns from Fhd. after a

useful tightener - not ready to endorse on top, but seems eligible for a piece with that start under her belt.

(7) MONICA GALLAGHER is another that's a bit unreliable from week to week, but she'll have a chance

to make some noise here IF she shows up on her best game (and picks up a little luck along the way). (5)

POPPY DRAYTON N moved up the ladder with a few sharp efforts but hasn't been able to pick up even a

small purse check in her last 4 starts - maybe she can grab at least a minor piece tonight? (4) ROLL WITH

ANGEL got lost at the back from Post 8 last time - gets some important post relief here, but the jury is still

out as to whether she can contend up at this elevated level. (6) ROCKNROLL ANNIE had to requalify

after missing time after a "lame" scratch - prefer to just watch, for now. (2) NORMANS MADELINE

probably needs to be in easier AND was scratched sick from her last