The Empire Report – Thursday, March 28, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (4) WAR DAN DELIGHT N was recently holding his own every week vs. 40s, and was a steady rallying
3rd in NW7500 last week – he now hits the basement, and has a post advantage over his main rival...he IS a bit
camera-shy, however, so don’t fall in love at a short price. (8) CENTURY INSPECTOR has also been facing much
better, and probably has enough speed to at least improve significantly at the start (if not able to head to the top) –
the main danger, even from out here. (5) VEL LETSROLL SOUTH clearly outraced his odds 2 back when 3rd
, then was a nice 2nd to the heavy favorite last week – seems next in line should the top pair falter. (6) MAJOR SHOW was
able to rally for a decent 3rd behind the 2 favorites last week and is a good fit in here – he doesn’t WIN very often,
however, and is probably better used underneath. (1) HOUND ON THE BEACH seemed a little cheap shipping in
last week and was a dull 4th – the rail draw is probably his biggest asset tonight. (7) HEISMAN PLAYER has been
struggling all year but did race a bit better last week – may be hard to build off that after landing outside, though. (3)
FINAL CHEESERECIPE was just 3 for 42 in Canada last year facing lesser – prefer to just observe tonight as he
debuts locally for a new barn. (2) ICE HOUSE has been in a bad rut for a long time
RACE 2 – When (6) TIPSY MONI was acquired by her current top shelf connections last year (from a low profile
barn) it seemed inevitable that she was going to really step up her (already strong) game....it took a little while but
she’s really hitting on all cylinders right now for our leading trainer, and last week had no trouble transitioning from
the FM Open to beating the boys – remains the one to knock off, even from Post 6. (5) PAPPARDELLE is a very
talented trotter but didn’t even pretend to be interested in his first start off the layoff – look for a more involved
effort the 2nd time around. (3) I GET IT raced much better than expected upon arrival from Dover last week, a strong
2nd behind #6 – definitely earned some respect with that mile and we’ll see if he can replicate it tonight. (2) ROYAL
TY BEER has hit board in 10 of 11 starts since arriving at YR, but was a little light at the end last week – always
one to consider for exotics. (4) P L OSCAR has been sharp for weeks, and was a 19-1 overlay winner (over a bit
easier) last week – leaning towards others, but it would be no surprise to see a solid effort from him. (1) YANKS
DUGOUT has seen his form fall off tremendously in his last 3 starts and would be hard to consider right now
RACE 3 – (1) WORLD FOR TWO really came up terrible in his first 2 starts off the claim but has come up with a
few more credible efforts since then – he’s looking at a good trip tonight, and might be in a spot to pull off a mild
upset. (2) BIG DREAM FELLA moves to a new barn after back to back wire to wire scores for his previous team –
remains the one to knock off. (5) COLD CREEK FELIPE raced better than expected when a decent 3rd returning to
YR last week – a similar effort could help him land a good piece again tonight. (4) LAZ re-qualified at Monti after
being away since December – may need a start before we see his best. (6) BOOM TOWN BOY draws outside after
an early miscue last week – he’ll probably sit back, and home to rally for a piece. (3) COALFORD BET ALINE was
just 2 for 28 last year and has failed to hit the board in his 6 starts this season
RACE 4 – (2) B NICKING ended 2023 on a class-climbing form spree and has remained sharp all through 2024 (so
far), right there in this class every week – gets a good draw, and should be a fair price in a race with a few valid
contenders. (3) CREDIT CON disappointed as the odds on choice 2 back but made amends with last week’s very
sharp front end score – more than capable of taking another. (5) WARRIOR ONE wasn’t at his best 2 back (off 3
weeks) but was a much better 2nd last week– the classy 8YO can never be counted out at this level. (4) DWS POINT
MAN has won 3 of 6 local starts and has held his form nicely in his climb up the ladder – may have to settle for
rallying for a smaller piece against these, however. (1) CREATIVE VENTURE has been a very solid performer
since last year but may be a bit higher up than he’d like in here – the good draw foes help, though. (6) TACHYON
was very sharp for several weeks but looked a little shaky last week even before the miscue – we’ll see if he can
bounce right back, or if he may start to go the other way
RACE 5 – (3) STEUBEN HANOVER caught a couple of rivals a little tougher than he’s used to last week and had
to settle for a no-threat 3rd – he’s back in more comfortable waters for tonight, and that stamps him as the one to
knock off. (1) P C FREE WHEELING has been hanging in there with some tough foes, and from tough spots – she
drops in for a tag, can be more aggressive with the move inside and should be able to have a big say tonight. (7) PE
RRON has hit board in 5 of his last 6 starts, making a break in the other – would definitely include him in exotics
even from out here, especially at that 12-1 ML price. (6) FLIP THE SWITCH puts his 4 race winning streak on the
line and he’ll be facing a tougher field, while also moving outside – would need a good price to use on top tonight.
(2) WILLY WALTON hasn’t been “terrible”, but he’s definitely off his best game – maybe some minor spoils? (8)
VOYAGE TO PARIS finished very well last week upon arrival from Ohio but another terrible draw may leave him
waiting for a better spot next week. (4) INN AT RODANTHE has been stuck on smaller pieces lately and would
need to pick up his game for a chance at something better tonight. (5) CRESCENT BEAUTY picked up that win in
a “fall apart” race 3 back, but showed little before and little since
RACE 6 – (2) EPOS OSTERVANG DK has been almost machine-like, turning in top efforts week after week,
regardless of trip, for seemingly forever – certainly looms the one to knock off tonight, (7) GAELIHILL was off
almost 6 months to his last but turned in a sharp mile for 2nd across the river (with the winner coming back to beat a
higher class the following week) – he’s had his share of local success in the past, and seems a good one for exotics at
that 20-1 ML price. (6) WHAT SHOULD I GOO broke here in her first start of 2024 on 3/7 but re-qualified nicely at
PcD – she can be a little unreliable, but she’s also capable of some big miles when in the right moods. (5) TOP ME
OFF wasn’t at his best 3 back (off the claim) when he made a break in the stretch after struggling at times during the
mile – was much sharper the next week, but looked a little off again in his last – can be in play for a good piece here,
but only if the “good” version shows up. (1) LIGHTFOOTEDLEGEND has been good in all 4 starts since his 2024
return but he’ll be taking on tougher now – the inside draw may help him contend for a piece. (3) J S HOPSCOTCH
has thrived since arriving at YR 6 starts back but he’s another that does his most damage vs. a bit easier. (8) UNEVE
RGONNAGTHIS just hasn’t been able to get up to top form so far in ’24 – he hasn’t been “bad”, but it’s hard to see
him threatening from out here. (4) DRACO S is yet another better suited one level down
RACE 7 – NAADA Amateur Spring Series – good race! (1) MUSCLE DAN took the hopples back off last week,
got away trotting and went a solid mile for 3rd – he’s had more than his share of tough trips lately, but maybe he’s
due for a good one from the pole – one of several that appear to have a legitimate chance tonight. (5) ZLATAN has
started this year at 0 for 8 after going 0 for 31 last year...but he’s gone some pretty good miles in defeat, and was
trotting well late last after being way out of it – he gets a new pilot for tonight, he’s 20-1 on the ML and it may not
be a bad week to give him a look. (4) ITSONEOFTHOSE has been racing well most weeks at the top levels upstate
and is a very logical threat here...that 3/2 ML price is certainly a turn off, however. (7) EXPLOSIVE RIDGE was a
winner 2 back then rallied with good trot from an impossible spot last week – if he can land on a manageable trip, he
may be able to beat these. (2) PSALMSFORTYSIXFIVE had been rock solid for weeks out of town so it was no
surprise to see him finish a close 2nd last week – he’s another that could be overbet here, however. (6) MAKING SP
ARKS should be rallying late but may just be too far back for more than a small slice. (8) SKYWAY PROFESSOR
went a BIG mile to win last week but will need much trip luck to overcome tonight’s brutal draw. (3) SS TYS AFLY
IN looked short off the layoff last week and may \need another
RACE 8 – (5) HOT FLASH KIMMY really picked up her game after joining the nation’s leading barn last Fall,
going 6-4-1-1 at The Meadows, including a sharp 1:54.4 blowout – she’s been freshened and appears to have
qualified back very solidly...willing to give her a shot (assuming she’s a fair price), despite taking on tougher foes
than she’s used to. (4) IMA DIAMOND BABE ships in sharp for crafty connections, and would appear to be a good
fit with these – looking for a big effort in her Hilltop debut. (7) NO MAS DRAMA has been a “tale of two horses”,
looking incredible in that mega-blowout 2 back but then barely lifting a hoof in her next – more than willing to give
her a shot to bounce right back...as long as the price is right. (2) LADY JETER is rarely a threat to win but she
grabs her smaller pieces and may be able to do that again tonight. (6) QUEEN OF ALL has been handled very
conservatively in her last few, leaving her with only a chance at smaller pieces – the bad draw suggests she may be
handled the same way tonight. (8) HELPOFTHESEASON has beaten these before and picked up 2nds in her last
pair – she’s also stuck with Post 8 tonight, and that 2-1 ML price just seems too low. (1) CALL ME DANI has been
racing ok in NJ but she just seems to struggle in her Yonkers starts. (3) NO TURNING BACK made a break in her
first try for a new barn last week – prefer others right now
RACE 9 - NAADA Amateur Spring Series: (5) JUST A PASSENGER blasted out quickly from Post 8, got a two
hole trip but came up just a bit short of pulling off a 50-1 upset last week – that price will surely come down tonight
but he’s in a great spot to grab another good trip, and may be able to make it pay off tonight. (7) LA MAGIC gets a
bad draw but he did just wire the field from Post 6 (at Freehold) with Beltrami on board – have to consider, even
from out here. (2) PAPPY GO GO has a ton of back class, draws well and gets a very capable pilot – he also figures
to be overbet, and probably not one to fall in love with. (8) SHOEMAKER HANOVER was 7-2-1-2 here last year
and the classy 11YO put in a big one at Fhd. in his first start of ’24 – would be worth a stab IF the price is juicy
enough. (4) JUDGE KEN probably isn’t hitting on all cylinders right now but he did make a nice recovery after an
early break last week, and has won here in the past – ok bomb to include underneath. (6) WINNERESS didn’t have
enough pop last start and will likely be coming from even further back tonight – minor share? (1) FLASHY SWAN
hasn’t raced since December and while he did qualify sharply, we’re still leaning to others right now. (3) SWAN
FACTOR was dull in his last couple and would need to really perk up to be in the hunt tonight
RACE 10 – (1) WINDSUN RICKY has been hurt by several bad posts but he’s raced well when drawn inside – the
barn has been sending out some scary sharp front-end winner’s lately, and this guy could be next in line...though he
probably won’t be as good a price as some of the others. (2) JIMMY CONNOR B wasn’t bad from a no chance spot
against better last week and should be looking at a good trip tonight – definite threat for exotics. (6) BENHOPE RU
LZ N had pace at both ends of the mile last week finishing right behind a very well meant 8 hole invader – could
easily outperform that 10-1 ML price here (with a good trip). (3) THREE GRAND hasn’t really clicked locally yet
for a barn that has been doing damage at multiple tracks since last year – we’ll see if the class drop perks him up a
bit. (4) CAVIART SARGENT used a perfectly timed brush to easily dispose of a much weaker crew last week –
may be back settling for a smaller piece against these, however. (5) AIR FORCE HANOVER has a few good efforts
sprinkled in this year but still seems destined to contend for only a smaller share tonight. (7) HIMSELF N adds
Lasix after struggling in his first few U.S. starts– keep an eye for next time (tough spot tonight) (8) GOTHIC ROCK
would need things to really fall apart to get a sniff from out here.
RACE 11 – Very tough finale: (7) TIN ROOF RAIDER has been good for weeks but had very little trip luck (and is
hurt by having been unable to generate any early speed) – his price will definitely shoot up a bit from out here, and
maybe tonight’s the night that things go his way? (4) IM A POWRPLAY A made no moves from 8th last week but
still wasn’t far back at the end– could be blasting here, and he’s another reasonable “value option”. (1) MACHEASY
A will attract plenty of attention dropping from 40s and drawing the pole – he’s a very logical player but he also
hasn’t done a lot of winning the past couple of years, and may end up overbet. (3) MAXIMUS RED A moves to a
new barn while in good form, and a live trip makes him another with a chance at the top prize. (8) MY ULTIMATE
BYRON A ships back in off a nice Buffalo win and just missed twice here already this year – not a bad one for those
looking for a “last race get out” horse. (6) ODDS ON PICK SIX is still winless in 2024 but he has hit board in 4 of 6
starts – playable underneath. (5) PAT STANLEY N is listed at 5/2 ML but his current form is spotty, at best – would
need a better price than that to try him on top. (2) BALLERAT BOOMERANG used a beautiful trip to be a close 3rd two back but has otherwise struggled in most of his recent starts.